Optimal Gradualism — 2022
When people face adjustment frictions, gradual shocks create less adverse distributional effects in the short run. We provide formulas for the optimal level of gradualism of trade and technology shocks, and use these formulas to study the optimal policy response to the automation of routine jobs, the China Shock, and Colombia’s trade liberalization in 1990.
Joint with Nils Lehr
Not a typical firm — 2022
The uneven adoption of automation technologies results in a declining aggregate labor share, a rising labor share for the median firm, and rising sales concentration. Relative to technology, markups play a minor role in manufacturing.
Joint with Joachim Hubmer
Uneven Growth — 2022
When technological change involves automation, most of its productivity gains accrue to capital owners instead of workers, generating a pattern of uneven growth.
Joint with Ben Moll and Lukasz Rachel
Forthcoming at Econometrica
Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality — 2022
Technologies that displace workers from tasks explain 50-70% of the rise in US wage inequality
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
Forthcoming at Econometrica
Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey — 2022
Using newly collected data from the ABS, this paper provides a comprehensive view of the adoption of several technologies across US firms in all economic sectors.
Joint work with the US Census Bureau
Prepared for the NBER/CRIW Conference on Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth
AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies — 2022
Firms whose task structures are more aligned with applications of AI are spearheading the adoption of this technology. Yet, this has not translated into an increase in hiring outside of AI-related fields.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, and Joe Hazell
Forthcoming at the Journal of Labor Economics
Demographics and Automation — 2021
Countries that are aging rapidly are spearheading advances in industrial automation and robotics.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
Review of Economic Studies
Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation? — 2020
Heavy taxation of labor and light taxation of capital might lead to excessive automation. If a full tax reform is unfeasible, taxing automation might reduce some of the inefficiencies in the current system and raise employment and the labor share.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu and Andrea Manera
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks — 2020
Technologies that change the allocation of tasks between skilled and skilled workers have large effects on wage inequality and can bring modest productivity gains and declining real wages for unskilled workers.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
AEA Papers and Proceedings
Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France — 2020
Firms that adopt robots become more productive, less labor intensive, and expand at the expense of competitors.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu and Claire Lelarge
AEA Papers and Proceedings
The Task Content of Production — 2019
Technologies that reallocate tasks across factors play a crucial role in explaining labor demand
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
Journal of Economic Perspectives
Robots and Jobs — 2019
Employment and wages have declined in US regions that house industries prone to the use of robots.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
Journal of Political Economy
Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work — 2019
Historical examples of automation, discussions about automation in the future, and a framework for thinking about technology.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
Chapter of NBER Book on “The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda”
Democracy Does Cause Growth — 2019
We provide evidence showing that we chose our title for a reason
Joint with Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Suresh Naidu
Journal of Political Economy
The Race Between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Unemployment — 2018
Automation reduces the labor share, but in the long run technology evolves to keep it balanced.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu
American Economic Review
Scarcity without Leviathan — 2017
Cocaine seizures in Colombia have created scarcity in downstream markets. Mexico suffered outbursts of violence as a consequence.
Joint with Daniel Mejia and Juan Camilo Castillo
Review of Economics and Statistics
Structural Unemployment — 2016
Automation, computers and technology might create temporary unemployment, especially during recessions.
The Mounties & the Origins of Peace — 2015
The mounties stopped Canadians (and hockey players) from developing a culture of violence.
Crime and Conspicuous Consumption — 2014
Before the great crime decline of the 90s, being victimized was one of the hazards of keeping up with the Joneses.
Joint with Daniel Mejia
Journal of Public Economics
Democracy & Redistribution — 2014
Democracies have larger governments, but their impact on inequality may be more complex.
Joint with Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Suresh Naidu
Handbook of Income Distribution
Enforcement on Illegal Markets — 2014
Aerial spraying of coca crops with glyphosate only reduces cultivation slightly, and we have a natural experiment in Colombia to show it.
Joint with Daniel Mejia and Sandra Rozo
World Bank Economic Review
Bushes and Bullets — 2014
Cocaine brought violence and corruption to Colombia, especially during periods of high demand and in areas suitable for cultivation.
Joint with Daniel Mejia
Hockey Visors and Risky Behavior — 2014
Protective gear: does the extra-safety make us reckless? Turns out in the case of Ice Hockey Peltzman was right.
Joint with Alberto Chong
Journal of Public Economics
The Economics of the War on Drugs — 2013
The War on Drugs in source countries is doomed to fail. Some broad economic forces explain why.
Joint with Daniel Mejia
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organizations
