Conference Program

A pdf version of the Conference Program is available here.

Location: GM Room in Horchow Hall (55 Hillhouse Avenue)

Day 1: Friday, September 23rd, 2016

Breakfast (8:30 AM – 9:00 AM)

Opening Session (9:00 AM – 9:15 AM)

Opening Remarks: Alexandre Debs (Yale University) and Nuno P. Monteiro (Yale University)

Nuclear Proliferation I: Proliferators and the Dangers of Nuclear Pursuit (9:15 AM – 10:45 AM)

Chair: Charles L. Glaser (George Washington University)

Paper 1: Andrew J. Coe (University of Southern California), “Give Peace a (Second) Chance: A Theory of Nonproliferation Deals”

  • Discussant: David A. Lake (University of California-San Diego)
  • Reader: Andrew Kydd (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
  • Reader: Or Rabinowitz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Paper 2: Matthew Fuhrmann (Texas A&M University), “How Leaders Assess Intentions Under Uncertainty: Leader Background Experiences and Nuclear Diplomacy”

  • Discussant: Andrew Kydd (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
  • Reader: Etel Solingen (University of California-Irvine)
  • Reader: Caitlin Talmadge (George Washington University)

Paper 3: Vipin Narang (MIT), “Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation”

  • Discussant: Charles L. Glaser (George Washington University)
  • Reader: Matthew Fuhrmann (Texas A&M University)
  • Reader: Austin Long (Columbia University)

Coffee Break (10:45 AM – 11:15 AM)

Nuclear Proliferation II: The Market for Nuclear Materials (11:15 AM – 12:45 PM)

Chair: Etel Solingen (University of California-Irvine)

Paper 1: Eliza Gheorghe (Harvard University), “Proliferation and the Logic of the Nuclear Marketplace”

  • Discussant: Joanne Gowa (Princeton University)
  • Reader: Andrew J. Coe (University of Southern California)
  • Reader: Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University)

Paper 2: Or Rabinowitz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), “Alliance and Nuclear Exports: Why Israel Never Recieved Nixon’s Promised Nuclear Power Plants”

  • Discussant: Etel Solingen (University of California-Irvine)
  • Reader: Eliza Gheorghe (Harvard University)
  • Reader: Jayita Sarkar (MIT)

Paper 3: Jayita Sarkar (MIT), “Neither Coercion nor Persuasion: Explaining U.S. Influence on Nuclear Export Policy Shifts in Supplier States”

  • Discussant: Matthew Fuhrmann (Texas A&M University)
  • Reader: Brendan Rittenhouse Green (University of Cincinatti)
  • Reader: John J. Mearsheimer (University of Chicago)

Lunch (12:45 PM – 2:15 PM)

Nuclear Escalation I: The Process and Prospects of Nuclear Escalation (2:15 PM – 3:45 PM)

Chair: Robert Powell (University of California-Berkeley)

Paper 1: Keir A. Lieber (Georgetown University), “Conventional War and Nuclear Escalation”

  • Discussant: James D. Fearon (Stanford University)
  • Reader: Vipin Narang (MIT)
  • Reader: Robert Jervis (Columbia University)

Paper 2: Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University), “Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran”

  • Discussant: William C. Wohlforth (Dartmouth College)
  • Reader: Joanne Gowa (Princeton University)
  • Reader: Austin Long (Columbia University)

Paper 3: Caitlin Talmadge (George Washington University), “Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States”

  • Discussant: John J. Mearsheimer (University of Chicago)
  • Reader: Keir A. Lieber (Georgetown University)
  • Reader: David A. Lake (University of California-San Diego)

Coffee Break (3:45 PM – 4:15 PM)

Keynote Address (4:15 PM – 5:30 PM)

Speaker: Colin Kahl (National Security Advisor to Vice President Joseph Biden, Georgetown University)

 

 

Day 2: Saturday, September 24th, 2016

Breakfast (8:00 AM – 8:30 AM)

Nuclear Escalation II: Nuclear Deterrence and Its Challenges (8:30 AM – 10:00 AM)

Chair: David A. Lake (University of California-San Diego)

Paper 1: Brendan Rittenhouse Green (University of Cincinatti) and Austin Long (Columbia University), “Clandestine Capabilities in World Politics”

  • Discussant: Keir A. Lieber (Georgetown University)
  • Reader: James D. Fearon (Stanford University)
  • Reader: Or Rabinowitz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Paper 2: Andrew Kydd (University of Wisconsin-Madison), “The Sturdy Child vs. the Sword of Damocles: Nuclear Weapons and the Expected Cost of War”

  • Discussant: Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University)
  • Reader: Andrew J. Coe (University of Southern California)
  • Reader: Daryl G. Press (Dartmouth College)

Paper 3: Daryl G. Press (Dartmouth College), “The New Era of Counterforce”

  • Discussant: Campbell Craig (Cardiff University)
  • Reader: Charles L. Glaser (George Washington University)
  • Reader: Caitlin Talmadge (George Washington University)

Coffee Break (10:00 AM – 10:30 AM)

Nuclear Stability: The Birth and Consolidation of the Nuclear Revolution (10:30 AM – 12:00 PM)

Chair: Joanne Gowa (Princeton University)

Paper 1: Campbell Craig (Cardiff University), “Choosing MAD: Khrushchev and the Nuclear Revolution, 1953-1960”

  • Discussant: Avery Goldstein (University of Pennsylvania)
  • Reader: Brendan Rittenhouse Green (University of Cincinnati)
  • Reader: Jayita Sarkar (MIT)

Paper 2: Avery Goldstein (University of Pennsylvania), “The End of the Beginning: China and the Consolidation of Nuclear Bargaining”

  • Discussant: Daryl G. Press (Dartmouth College)
  • Reader: Eliza Gheorghe (Harvard University)
  • Reader: Vipin Narang (MIT)

Paper 3: James D. Fearon (Stanford University), “The Nuclear Revolution, International Politics, and U.S. Foreign Policy”

  • Discussant: Robert Jervis (Columbia University)
  • Reader: Campbell Craig (Cardiff University)
  • Reader: William C. Wohlforth (Dartmouth College)

Lunch and Wrap-Up Discussion (12:00 PM – 1:30 PM)

Chair: Robert Jervis (Columbia University)

 

For any questions, please contact conference student liaison, Nick Anderson.

The conference is organized by Alexandre Debs (Yale University) and Nuno Monteiro (Yale University).

Thank you to conference sponsors: the Leitner Program in International and Comparative Political Economy and the Edward J. and Dorothy Clarke Kempf Memorial Fund, both at the Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale University.