By Daulat Jha

On May 9th, 2012, NAYA organized a two-hour talk on contemporary political affairs in Nepal titled “Nepal’s Peace and Constitutional Process – The Approaching Endgame”.  The talk was particularly pertinent given that it was a tumultuous period in Nepal and few, if anybody, knew what was going to happen in the following two weeks as the date for the expiration of the Constituent Assembly (CA), election to draft a new constitution, was about to expire on May 28. Prashant Jha, a seasoned political analyst who has worked as a consultant for many international organizations and is a correspondent for The Hindu and Anagha Neelakantan is a Senior Analyst with International Crisis Group and was formerly associated with the United Nations Mission in Nepal. Both have extensive experience and in-depth knowledge of Nepal’s decade long conflict and the subsequent the peace process.

The speakers began by summarizing the causes and contextualizing where the peace process was reached then. They also highlighted the significant progress made towards consolidating peace – many of the contested issues in the constitution had been resolved leaving only two contentious issues; the CA was the most representative in Nepal’s history; and, the rebel army had been integrated within the structure of the Nepal Army.  However, ethnic fault-lines had developed recently as hitherto excluded and marginalized communities had started to demand ethnic federalism and reservations in all sectors of the polity. “There is a clear conflict of interest between various stakeholders, as well as diametrically opposing demands in many cases. Many forces out to wreck the constitutional project see this as the last opportunity, and create further trouble,” Jha said. Neelakanthan spoke of her recent field visits to volatile areas but said that the ground situation was unpredictable.

They concluded the talk by making a set of recommendations. “The democratic political class has to separate the genuine dissenting group from the spoilers; judge adequate political strength and popular sentiment of any demand; and reconcile interests where possible. Given the fact that there has been remarkable progress in the past few months—on the peace process, formation of unity government, resolution of many constitutional issues—a short and final extension to solely focus on state restructuring, take into account emerging voices from below, and refine the constitutional text is both necessary and desirable.”

Sadly, the Constituent Assembly was dissolved on May 28, ushering in another period of uncertainty.