Modeling spread of tick-borne disease

Data on the historic ranges of vector-borne pathogens rarely exists, making it difficult to identify patterns of pathogen spread.  Using the best available longitudinal data—human surveillance data—we developed a spatio-temporal model for the spread of Lyme disease and babesiosis across New England.  Our model predicts that tick-borne diseases spread in a diffusion-like manner, at approximately 10 km per year, with occasional long-distance dispersal and that babesiosis spread closely tracks the spread of Lyme disease across the landscape.

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