

PUBLICATIONS  
2019 “Leverage Caused the 20072009 Crisis”, Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: Ten Years after 2018 “Quantitative Easing, Collateral Constraints, and Financial Spillovers”(with Haobin Wang), 2017 “Uniqueness and Stability of Equilibrium in Economies with Two Goods,” (with Kieran Walsh), forthcoming, Journal of Economic Theory. (August 2016) [CFDP 2050] Greece’s sovereign debt and economic realism” (J. Bulow), Centre for Economic Policy Research. Policy Insight No. 90. (June 2017) “Inefficient Liquidity Provision” (with K. Walsh), forthcoming, Economic Theory (February 2017). [CFDP 2079] 2016 “The Credit Surface and Monetary Policy”, in Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconmic Policy” International Monetary Fund and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. MIT Press, (2016):143153. 

“Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (January 2016), 8(1): 242284 (with Ana Fostel) [CFP 1510]  
2015  
“Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization” (with A. Fostel), forthcoming Econometrica (December 2015), 83(6): 21912229 [CFP 1502]  
2014  
“Collateral Equilibrium: I: A Basic Framework” (with William R. Zame), Economic Theory (August 2014), 56(3): 443492 [CFP 1431]  
“Endogenous Collateral Constraints and the Leverage Cycle” (with Ana Fostel), Annual Review of Economics (May 2014) [CFP 1430]  
“Inflationary Equilibrium in a Stochastic Economy with Independent Agents,” Journal of Mathematical Economics (May 2014), 52: 111 [CFP 1420]
“Leverageinduced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies” (with D. Farmer, S. Poledna, S. Thurner), Journal of Banking & Finance (May 2014), 42: 199212. 

“Leverage, Default, and Forgiveness: Lessons of the American and European Crises,” Journal of Macroeconomics (March 2014), 39(Part B): 313333 [CFP 1419]  
“Monitoring Leverage” (with Lasse H. Pedersen), in Markus K. Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy, eds., Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, NBER, 2014, pp. 175182 [CFDP 1838, CFP 1432]]  
2013  
“Afriat from MinMax,” Economic Theory (November 2013), 54(3): 443448.  
“Asymptotic Behavior of a Stochastic Discount Rate” (with W. Sudderth, O. Zeitouni) (November 2011), forthcoming, Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics (September 2013) Advance online publication doi:10.1007/s1317101300379  
“Prizes vs. Wages with Envy and Pride,” Japanese Economic Review (March 2013), 64(1): 98121  
2012  
“Getting at Systemic Risk via an AgentBased Model of the Housing Market” (with Robert Axtell, Doyne J. Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey, Nathan M. Palmer, ChunYi Yang), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings (May 2012), 102(3): 53–58 [CFP 1358]  
“Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility,” Quantitative Finance (May 2012), 12:5: 695707 (with Stefan Thurner, J. Doyne Farmer) [CFP 1371]  
“Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes” (with A. Fostel), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (January 2012), 4(1): 190225 [CFP 1353]  
“Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage” (with A. Fostel), Journal of Economic Theory (March 2012), 147(2): 501525 [CFP 1354]  
2011  
“Incorporating Financial Features into Macroeconomics: Discussion,” in Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead. Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium, 2011 [CFP 1331]  
“Markets and Contracts,” Journal of Mathematical Economics (May 2011), 47(3): 279288 (with A. Bisin, P. Gottardi, E. Minelli, H. Polemarchakis) [CFP 1342]  
“What’s Missing from Macroeconomics: Endogenous Leverage and Default,” in Marek Jarocinski, Frank Smets, and Christian Thimann (eds.), Approaches to Monetary Policy Revisited — Lesson from the Crisis, Sixth ECB Central Banking Conference 1819 November 2010, European Central Bank, 2011, pp. 220238 [CFP 1332]  
2010  
“Credit Cards and Inflation” (with P. Dubey), Games and Economic Behavior (November 2010), 70(2): 325353 [CFP 1330]  
Grading Exams: 100, 99,…,1 or A, B, C? Incentives in Games of Status” (with P. Dubey), Games and Economic Behavior (2010), 69(1): 7294 [CFP 1302]  
“The Leverage Cycle.” In D. Acemoglu, K. Rogoff and M. Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009, vol. 24: 165, University of Chicago Press, 2010 [plus erratum] [CFP 1304]  
“Managing the Leverage Cycle: A Brief Talk in Milan with Questions and Answers” Dopo la Crisi: Conseguenze Economiche, Finanziarie e Sociali, Centro Nazionale di Prevenzione e Difesa Sociale, 2010 [CFP 1306]  
“Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits” (with Stephen P. Zeldes), in Deborah Lucas, ed., Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk. University of Chicago Press, 2010, pp. 213233 [CFP 1303]  
“Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, August 2010, pp. 101131 [CFP 1305]  
2009  
“Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts” (with Stephen P. Zeldes) In Jeffrey R. Brown, Jeffrey B. Liebman and David A. Wise, eds., Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment. University of Chicago Press, 2009, pp. 73121 [CFP 1276]  
“The Virtues and Vices of Equilibrium and the Future of Financial Economics” Complexity (Jan/Feb 2009), 14(3): 1138 (with J. Doyne Farmer) [CFDP 1647, CFP 1274]  
2008  
“Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity UnderSupply: A Simple Model” (with A. Fostel), Economic Theory (2008), 35: 441467 [CFDP 1468, CFP 1236]  
“Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy” (with Ana Fostel), American Economic Review (2008), 98(4): 12111244 [CFP 1233]  
“Overlapping Generations Model of General Equilibrium” In “The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics“, Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008 [CFP 1275]  
2007  
“Pareto Improving Taxes” (with H. Polemarchakis), forthcoming in Journal of Mathematical Economics (2007), 44:78: 682696 [CFDP 1576 and CFDP 1662, CFP 1235]  
2006  
“Determinacy with Nominal Assets and Outside Money” (with P. Dubey), Economic Theory (2006), 27(1): 79106. [CFDP 1427R and CFP 1199]  
“The Inflationary Bias of Real Uncertainty and the Harmonic Fisher Equation” (with I. Karatzas, M. Shubik, W.D. Sudderth), Economic Theory (2006), 28(3): 481512. [CFDP 1424R, CFDP 1333 as “Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy,” and CFP 1201]  
“Money and Production, and Liquidity Trap” International Journal of Economic Theory (2006), 2(3/4): 295317 [CFDP 1574 and CFP 1200]  
2005  
“Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium” (with P. Dubey and M. Shubik), Econometrica (2005), 73(1): 137. [CFDP 1304RRR, CFDP 1247 as “Default in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets,” CFDP 879R as “Default and Efficiency in General Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets,” and CFP 1108]  
“Introduction to “Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist” (coedited with R. Dimand), American Journal of Economics and Sociology (2005), 64(1): 318 and Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, 2005. [CFP 1198]  
“TThe Ideal Inflation Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher’s Theory of Interest with Overlapping Generations” in Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist (coedited with R. Dimand), American Journal of Economics and Sociology (2005), 64(1): 257305 and Blackwell Publishing, Oxford. [CFDP 1429 and CFP 1111]  
“Three Brief Proofs of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem,” Economic Theory, (2005), 26(1): 211215. [CFDP 1123RRR and CFP 1116]  
2004  
“Demography and the Longrun Predictability of the Stock Market” (with M. Magill and M. Quinzii), Brookings Papers on Economic Activities (2004), 1: 241325. [CFDP 1380R and CFP 1099]  
2003  
“Liquidity, Default, and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium,” Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Eighth World Conference, Volume II, Econometric Society Monographs (2003), pp. 170205. [CFDP 1316RR and CFP 1074]  
“Inside and Outside Fiat Money, Gains to Trade, and ISLM” (with Pradeep Dubey), Economic Theory (2003), 21(23): 347397. [CFDP 1257R and CFP 1052]  
“Nash and Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer,” Economic Theory (2003), 21(23): 585603. [CFDP 1131RRR and CFP 1058]  
“Is Gold An Efficient Store of Value?” (with P. Dubey and M. Shubik), Economic Theory (2003), 21(4): 767782. [CFDP 1031R2 and CFP 1084.]  
“Social Security Investment in Equities” (with P. Diamond), American Economic Review (2003), 93(4): 10471074; also to be reprinted in R. Brooks and A. Razin (eds.), Social Security Reform: Financial and Political Issues in International Perspectives, Cambridge University Press, 2005. [CFDP 1314R as “Social Security Investment in Equities: I. Linear Case,” and CFP 1070] 

“From Nash to Walras via ShapleyShubik” (with P. Dubey), Journal of Mathematical Economics (2003), 39: 391400. [CFDP 1360]  
“Monetary Equilibrium with Missing Markets” (with P. Dubey), Journal of Mathematical Economics (2003), 39: 585618. [CFDP 1389 and CFP 1063]  
2002  
“Savings and Portfolio Choice in a TwoPeriod, TwoAsset Economy” (with S. Aura and P. Diamond.), American Economic Review (2002), 92(4): 118591. [CFDP 1268 and CFP 1078]  
“Competitive Pooling: RothschildStiglitz Reconsidered” (with P. Dubey), The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2002), 117(4): 15291570. [CFDP 1346RR, CFDP 1305, as “Signalling and Default: Rothschild and Stiglitz Reconsidered,” and CFP 1048]  
“International Finance in General Equilibrium” (with D. Tsomocos), Research in Economics, (2002), 56(1): 85142. [CFDP 1313 and CFP 1082]  
2000  
“The Hierarchical Approach to Modeling Knowledge and Common Knowledge” (with R. Fagin, J.Y. Halpern, M.Y. Vardi), International Journal of Game Theory, (1999), 28(3): 331365. [CFDP 1213 and CFP 984]  
“Social Security Money’s Worth” (with O. Mitchell and S. Zeldes). In O. Mitchell, R. Myers and H. Young (eds.), Prospects for Social Security Reform. Pension Research Council, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, 1999, pp. 79151. Reprinted by the Pension Research Council, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2000. [CFDP 1193 and CFP 1005]  
“A Strategic Market Game with Active Bankruptcy” (with I. Karatzas, M. Shubik and W. Sudderth), Journal of Mathematical Economics (2000), 34(3): 359396. [CFDP 1183 and CFP 1008]  
1998  
“A Note on the Economic Rationalization of Gun Control,” (with V. Chaudhri), (1998), Economic Letters, 58(1): 5153.  
“Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?” (with O. Mitchell and S. Zeldes). In R.D. Arnold, M. Graetz and A. Munnell (eds.), Framing the Social Security Debate. Values, Economics, and Politics. National Academy of Social Insurance, 1998, pp. 137157. Reprinted in S.H. Altman and D.I. Shactman (eds.), Policies For An Aging Society, as “Private Accounts, Prefunding, and Equity Investment Under Social Security.” Boston and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002, pp. 266292. [CFDP 1194 and CFP 1002]  
19911997  
“General Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets: A Comment.” In Lionel McKenzie and Stefano Zamagni (eds.), Value and Capital, 50 Years Later. Macmillan, London, 1991, pp. 145150.  
“A Theory of Hierarchies Based on Limited Managerial Attention” (with P. Milgrom), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, (1991), 5(3): 205225. [CFDP 775R and CFP 794]  
“Overlapping Generations” (with H. Polemarchakis). In W. Hildenbrand and Hugo Sonnenschein (eds),Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Volume IV. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1991, pp. 18991962.  
“When Seeing Further is Not Seeing Better” (with L. Gray), (1991), Bulletin of the Santa Fe Institute, 6(2): 16. [CFP 797]  
“The Value of Money in a FiniteHorizon Economy: A Role for Banks” (with Pradeep Dubey). In P. Dasgupta, D. Gale, D. Hart, and E. Maskin (eds.), Economic Analysis of Markets and Games, Essays in Honor of Frank Hahn. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992, pp. 407444. [CFP 901.]  
“Correlated Equilibrium with Generalized Information Structures” (with A. Brandenburger and E. Dekel), Games and Economic Behavior, (1992), 4: 182201. [CFDP 884R, 1988 and reprinted as CFP 819, 1992.]  
“The Expressive Power of the Hierarchical Approach to Modeling Knowledge and Common Knowledge” (with R. Fagin, J. Halpern, and M. Vardi). In Y. Moses (ed.), Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Knowledge, Proceedings of the Fourth Conference. San Mateo: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 1992, pp. 254315.  
“Common Knowledge,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, (1992), 6(4): 5283. [CFP 828]  
“The Power of Commitment” (with C. Chou), accepted in Journal of Economic Theory. [CFDP 885]  
“Common Knowledge.” In R. Aumann and S. Hart (eds.), Handbook of Game Theory, Volume 2. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1994, pp. 14371496. [CFDP1062 and CFP 882]  
“Stationary Markov Equilibria” (with D. Duffie, A. McLennan, and A. MasColell), Econometrica (1994), 62(4): 745781. [CFP 873]  
“Promises, Promises.” In W.B. Arthur, S. Durlauf and D. Lane (eds.), The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, II. Reading MA: AddisonWesley, 1997, pp. 285320. [CFDP 1143 and CFP 1057]  
19861990  
“Existence, Regularity, and Constrained Suboptimality of Competitive Allocations when the Asset Market Is Incomplete” (with H. Polemarchakis). In W. Heller, R. Starr, and D. Starrett (eds.), Essays in Honor of Kenneth Arrow, Vol. 3. Cambridge University Press, 1986, pp. 6595. [CFDP 764 and CFP 652]  
“Walrasian Indeterminacy and Keynesian Macroeconomics“ (with H. Polemarchakis), Review of Economic Studies (1986), 53(5): 755779. [CFDP 778 and CFP 1120.]  
“The Revelation of Information in Strategic Market Games: A Critique of Rational Expectations Equilibrium” (with P. Dubey and M. Shubik), Journal of Mathematical Economics (1987), 16(2): 105138. [CFDP 634R and CFP 686]  
“The ArrowDebreu Model of General Equilibrium.” In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, P. Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Vol. 1. London: Macmillan Press, 1987, pp. 116124.  
“The Overlapping Generations Model of General Equilibrium.” In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, P. Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Vol. 3. London: Macmillan Press, 1987, pp. 767779.  
“Real Indeterminacy with Financial Assets” (with A. MasColell), Journal of Economic Theory (1989), 47(1): 2238. [CFDP 770R and CFP 721]  
“Psychological Games and Sequential Rationality” (with D. Pearce and E. Stacchetti), Games and Economic Behavior (1989), 1(1): 6080. [CFP 726]  
“Solving Systems of Simultaneous Equations in Economics” (with W. Shafer), Journal of Mathematical Economics (1990), 19(1): 6993. [CFDP 902 and CFP 749]  
“An Introduction to General Equilibrium with Incomplete Asset Markets,” Journal of Mathematical Economics (1990), 19(12): 138. [CFDP 919 and CFP 750]  
“Generic Inefficiency of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete” (with M. Magill, M. Quinzii, and J. Dreze), Journal of Mathematical Economics (1990), 19(1): 113151. [CFDP 863 and CFP 751]  
“Observability and Optimality” (with H. Polemarchakis), Journal of Mathematical Economics (1990), 19(1): 153165. [CFDP 901 and CFP 752]  
“Game Theory Without Partitions and Applications to Speculation and Consensus,” accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Theory. [CFDP 914]  
“The Capital Asset Pricing Model as a General Equilibrium with Incomplete Asset Markets” (with M. Shubik), Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, (1990), 15(1): 5571. [CFDP 913 and CFP 759]  
“Common Knowledge of an Aggregate of Expectations” (with A. Brandenburger, R. McKelvey, L. Nielson, and T. Page), (1990), Econometrica, 58(5): 12351239.  
19801985  
“On the Disaggregation of Excess Demand Functions” (with H. Polemarchakis), Econometrica (1980), 48(1): 15335. 

“Incomplete Insurance and Absolute Risk Aversion” (with T. Ito and H. Imai), Economic Letters (1981), 8(2): 107112.  


“Don’t Bet On It: A Note on Contingent Agreements with Asymmetric Information” (with J. Sebenius), Journal of American Statistical Association (1983), 78(382): 224226. [CFDP 641 and CFP 572]  
“A Geometric Explanation of the Transfer Paradox in a Stable Economy” (with G. Heal), Journal of Development Economics (1983), 13 (12), pp. 223226. [CFDP 651 and CFP 577]  
“Utility Functions for Debreu’s Excess Demands’,” Journal of Mathematical Economics (1984), 13(1): 19. [CFDP 643 and CFP 600]  
“Intertemporally Separable Overlapping Generations Economies” (with H. Polemarchakis), Journal of Economic Theory (1984), 34(2): 207215. [CFDP 677 and CFP 606]  
“Holding Idle Capacity to Deter Entry” (with J. Bulow and P. Klemperer), Economic Journal (1985), 95 (377): 17882. [CFP 609]  
“Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements” (with J. Bulow and P. Klemperer), Journal of Political Economy (1985), 93(3): 488511. [Previous version appeared as “Multimarket Oligopoly,” CFDP 674 and CFP 620]  
BOOKS EDITED  
Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist (coedited with R. Dimand), Blackwell Publishing, 2005.  
PAPERS SUBMITTED FOR PUBLICATION
“NonExclusive Insurance with Free Entry: A Pedagogical Note”, (with Pradeep Dubey), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2167 (February 2019) “Global Collateral and Capital Flows“, (with Ana Fostel and Gregory Phelan), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No.2169 (February 2019) “Quantitative Easing, Collateral Constraints, and Financial Spillovers” ( Haobin Wang) Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2154 (December 2018) “Money and Status: How Best to Incentivize Work,”(with Pradeep Dubey), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1954 (July 2014) Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1954R (May 2016), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1954RR (February 2017). “Global Collateral: How Financial Innovation Drives Capital Flows and Increases Financial Instability,” (with A. Fostel., G. Phelan) (February 2017). [CFDP 2076] “Uniqueness and Stability of Equilibrium in Economies with Two Goods,” (with Kieran Walsh), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2050 (August 2016). 

“The Hangman’s Paradox and Newcomb’s Paradox as Psychological Games,” (1996) [CFDP 1128]  
“Hyperbolic Discounting is Rational: Valuing the Far Future with Uncertain Discount Rates,” (with J. Doyne Farmer) (August 2009) [CFDP 1719]  
“Uncertain Growth and the Value of the Future,” (with D. Farmer, J. Masoliver, M. Montero, J. Perello)  
“Why is Too Much Leverage Bad for the Economy,” (with F. Kubler)  
PAPERS UNDER REVISION  
“Dollar Denominated Debt and Optimal Security Design, CFDP 1449, 2003. Previously appeared as “Financial Security Design, Ex Ante Welfare and Dollar Denominated Debt” (with Felix Kubler), 2000 and “Financial Securities Design, Dollar Denominated Debt, and Welfare,” Yale mimeo.  
“Comparative Statics and Local Indeterminacy in OLG Economics: An Application of the Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem” (with Donald Brown), CFDP 773, 1985.  
“Insurance Contracts Designed by Competitive Pooling, (with Pradeep Dubey), CFDP 1315, 2001.  
“Beyond Equilibrium and Efficiency” (with J. Doyne Farmer) (2007) 